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NIFTY HAS 2 OPTIONS, 6100 OR 5100.
Above chart shows that Nifty is trading in wide channel. Where upper channel is touching now to 6100 and lower close to 5100. Please understand, this is not a matter of days hence do not build position with either of target in mind. But, since Nifty has closed below 5620, wait for Nifty to close above 5640 to initiate any long position.
Nifty has dropped 67 points today. IT has closed below crucial support level of 5620 and hence forced closure of long positions.
But, if you analyse yesterday’s movement. Nifty fell to 5595 by 12 noon and then remained in narrow range of 5590 to 5610 till market closed. Hence, It makes me think to believe that this might be a trap to weed out weak holders of long positions otherwise market should have continued to fall if it was weak.
Hence, I will wait for tomorrow’s move of first 2 hours to decipher any decision.
Rupee has traded exactly as expected. Rupee remained weak and touched 54.19 today as I had expected. I believe for rest of the week, it will continue to trade in the range of 53.70 to 54.30 before appreciating and targeting 51 again.
UPDATE ISSUED ON 29TH NOV:
Rupee is trading in the range of 52.70 to 53.90 as expected. As Dollar has strengthened today and global markets are slipping, Rupee can revisit the 54 level and may stretch up to 54.30. But, trend in Rupee still remains down(i.e. Rupee will appreciate), hence use higher levels to accumulate short positions.
Hence, accumulate short positions when Rupee trades above 53.90. Rupee may give a quick spike up to 54.28 any day in this week. Use that opportunity to create short positions at higher levels.
I believe, this is very sure trade that Rupee will hit back the low of 51. 30-51.40 reached on 5th oct again. Hence, create short positions and hold with patience. One will get many opportunity to create short positions in next 1-2 week, hence do not jump on to create positions at one level.
Gold has continued to consolidate around 1707-1713. As Dollar is weakening further, Gold can rebound to the level of 1740.
I am sideways right now.
Rupee’s slide has extended cushion to Gold. I believe Gold will broadly remain in the range of 30700 to 31300 for some days till the Rupee tops out.
Silver has been consolidating in the range of 31.70 to 32.20 since last 7 days. Chances of retracing some of the fall more likely then otherwise.
I will remain sideways. Will update as opportunity arises.
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