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Performance Update of 12-10-2012
Calls given through Yahoo Messenger and Twitter
HindOilExplo and JinadlaSaw stopped out.
Fresh Recommendations for 15-10-2012
I will issue calls through Yahoo Messenger and twitter.
Nifty should find support at closing levels. Nifty continues to consolidate and as said Nifty can test the support range of 5620-5640 again. That possibility still remains. Nifty has very good support at 5620. Hence, if Nifty slips to 5620, buy your favourite stocks.
Primer on Demographics
India is youngest nation on the earth among emerging and developed nations. Our mean age comes to around 26 years. When nation’s average age is below 30. It indicates that nation will keep consuming for long period. Because there is a large pool of population, who are yet to get married, yet to have child, yet to have their first home( and everything a house requires), yet to reach higher productivity level.
When your nation is under 30. Nation experiences continuous bouts of inflation. Because, population around 25-26 means either studying or have just started jobs. And, these age group hardly compromise on consumption. They want to dine out in best restaurants, want to see movie in best theatre, want to buy fashionable and branded clothes, it just goes on like this, You just enquire with parents, whose son/Daughter is in 20s and they will tell you about their consumption pattern. But, this age group adds very little productivity.
Therefore, on macro scale, when you see it, you will find that India is going through consumption phase because of population dynamics which tilts towards young age groups and since this age group has either not joined industries/services or have just joined. They have just begun to add productivity. That’s why, India has been repeatedly facing inflation worries. Today’s developed nations had also gone through the similar phase when they were in their 20’s. Like when US was passing through its baby boom generation between 1968-1982, inflation averaged close to 10%.
Hence, I would say yes policies, corruption and governance are responsible for inflation but with that Demographics is also playing major role.
I remember in one of the interview published in Economic Time, Mukesh Ambani was asked why is he venturing into every stream of business right from refinery to dairy, mango exports, telecom and what not?
Mukesh Ambani said I am betting on next 10 -15 years growth of India, which will come from favourable demographics.
Rupee will consolidate in the range of 52.50 to 53.50 for some days
Gold has closed below support range of $1759-$1769. Closing below support range indicates that Gold can slip to $ 1740 and $1720 very quickly provided it does not pull up above support range on Monday. Many a times, we have seen that stock/commodity closes below support levels for a day and next day it climbs back. Gold had fallen below support range in last trading hours of last day therefore one should wait for Monday’s movement. Traders can create speculative short position with closing basis stop loss of $ 1769.
In Indian price, if Gold slips then can test 30700.
Silver has closed below support levels. On downside can test 33.25, 32.85 and 32.15 levels.
I will remain sideways. Will update as opportunity arises.
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Disclaimer: Daily Wealth is a free daily investment newsletter published by Investment Academy. This publication does not provide individual, customized investment or trading advice. All information is based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates, but hypothetical as we do not track actual prices of customer purchases and sales. Author might have open positions in the stocks and Indices recommended above.