In my trail mail, I had shown the 2 probabilities for market from here.
- markets continue their decline from here and may fall further 20-25 % from here
- markets turn positive on the back of winding of record short positions built across the world and pose a decent recovery and than again decline sharply to form newer lows
since then markets have rallied.
Gradually, perspective is building up for the interim rally ( Bear Market rally) in the market. What is bear market rally? If we track the history, in 1930’s depression, US market fell sharply in 1929, in 1930-market staged bear market rally going up by 44 % and again formed newer lows in 1931.
Fundamentally – we have seen many measures taken by govt. world across in 2008. And normally there is lag of 8-10 months between announcements of measures and real effects seen in economy. Now is the time, when we will soon start observing the effects of stimulus packages and relief packages. ON the news of that markets will recover from here. Like auto sales has gone up, SBI’s home loan at 8% and car loan at 10% alluring buyers. This and temporary halt of more negative news flow will prepare a ground for bear market rally. This rally may last for 3-5 months and may retrace 35 % to 50 % of its decline. It’s a nice fatty profit opportunity. But, Crowd will make a mistake, considering it a bull market and participating with both the hands.
Most important recent development, making even stronger case for the rally, is that central banks have started printing money. UK announced it in 1st week and now US confirmed announcing buy back of $300 bn treasuries. What is the effect of printing money? Since, world’s credit conditions are like neighbor thy beggar. To get big stimulus packages financed from rich countries and financial institutions is becoming difficult and practically impossible. The only other way is to print money to meet the committed announcements.
Now, when you print more money that means more money in the financial system and to spice it up, we have very low rate of interest(like US has 0.25 %) that means more money and lower interest rates will raise the demand for goods and commodities that will result into higher commodity prices and lower value of currency. When commodity prices go up, with that all commodity linked assets’ prices also tend to move up and with that we see those higher prices of assets(like products of companies, real estate etc…) getting factored in market, staging a bull rally.
Has this point come? Has market resumed for bear market rally?
My take- for sure we are very near to start of bear market rally. There are 2 possibilities. First, we could be well in the bear market rally wherein the recent bottom stays and market keeps on going up to stage bear market rally. Second, market dips again to retest the recent lows or to form the new low and then resumes the rally. I will confirm as the levels are breached.
Also read the techno-fundamental perspective:
As stated in last weekends analysis and newsletter, following the Dow’s Friday close at 6626 that the Dow Jones Index had now fulfilled its bear market target of 6,600 as per the analysis of 20th Jan 2009 and illustrated by the chart below. The primary focus hence forth was to “position for a bullish spike higher” that would CONFIRM the bear market low, and negate the secondary far less probable overshoot target of 5,700 to 6000. This occurred on Tuesday which saw the first of a series of BUY TRIGGERS both on the Intra day charts and then on the Daily time frame chart that confirmed the preceding weeks Bear Market Low and set in motion the anticipated spike that took the Dow up 12% by the end of the week to close at 7,224.
Charts Courtesy of Stockcharts.com
The Stealth Bull Market is Born
As I warned of several months ago, do NOT pay attention to the fundamentals, they are IRRELEVANT AT MARKET JUNCTIURES. Stock markets that rally on bad news are SENDING you a STRONG SIGNAL, for the market MOVES AHEAD of any POSITIVE fundamental news or data, which is why stocks have soared by 12% in just one week despite the catastrophic economic data that many now see as the beginnings of the Great Depression II, which my analysis of October 2008 discounted and contained the strategy for accumulating towards the final stages of the current bear market that was forecast to extend towards 6,600 in terms of price and Mid 2009 in terms of time, which hence brought into play the possibility of a downside overshoot to 6,000 which I more or less discounted last weekend on Dow close of 6626.
However You Do NOT BUY a Falling Market, You wait for the Buy triggers as illustrated by last weeks price action, and warned off in last weekends analysis.
“Having now fulfilled the primary target of 6,600 the next phase of the strategy is therefore towards accumulating on buy price triggers in advance of what I consider will become a multi-year bull market, which appears contrary to many analysts.”– 8th March 2009 – Dow 6626.
Now watch ! How this STEALTH bull market will consistently be recognised as just a bear market rally to sell into and NOT to accumulate into. All the way from 6,600 to 7,600 to 8,600 and even beyond, the move will be missed by most as consistently bearish rhetoric and data will ensure only the smart money accumulates, for the small investor has now become Conditioned to the Bear Market Rallies of 20% and subsequently plunges to fresh lows. Many, many months from now, with stocks up 30%, investors will then WAIT for THE BIG CORRECTION, THE RE-TEST to buy into the apparent BULL Market , Well these investors will still be waiting as stocks pass the 50% advance mark, AGAIN only those that will have profited are the hedge funds and fund investors (Smart Money) WHO HAVE BEEN ACCUMULATING , as I elaborate upon next.
Hedge Fund Fraud on Investors and Tax Payers
The markets ARE manipulated, once you as a small investor come to agree with this statement then you can take the necessary steps to prevent yourself from being wiped out by ALWAYS keeping this in mind that Manipulated markets WANT you to act in a certain manner at certain times, they want you to buy into the latter stages of a bubble as the manipulators distribute, and the market manipulators want you to SELL into Market Bottoms and early bull rallies when the manipulators are accumulating.
Who are the market manipulators ? Today it is the Investment banks, investment funds, CEO’s (stock options) and last but not least HEDGE FUNDS that created the stocks bubble through leverage of X20 or more that subsequently bankrupted the banks that were driven insane by short-term greed with trillions of dollars of liabilities which have NOW been fraudulently dumped onto the tax payers. I have not heard a single story of a hedge fund manager losing money, not one! They have BANKED their profits ! The losers are their investors who held on and the banks who leveraged them up to the tune of tens of trillions, and in the final instance the Tax payers who are being FORCED to bail out the bankrupt banks to the tunes of tens of trillions!
The hedge funds HAVE PROFITED FROM THE CRASH – Because they manipulated the bubble higher and then manipulated the crash, HOW ? Its in plain sight, they sold the banks short into price oblivion, remember Bear Stearns ? Hedge funds shorted the stock and then pulled their money out i.e. caused a run on the bank and its collapse. Hedge funds manipulated the markets by magnifying the crisis of confidence. Targeting bank after bank after bank whilst raking in huge returns as I have repeatedly warned over a year, as our very own HBOS fell victim to hedge fund shenanigans in March 2008. Unfortunately whilst the FSA regulator talked the talk about doing something about it they in actual fact did NOTHING! as March, turned into April, April into May and eventually along came Septembers CRISIS. Had the regulators acted then the close call with Financial Armageddon of September 2008 could have been averted as Hedge funds would have been forced into a strategy other than picking off the banks one by one! This just confirms that the regulators on both sides of the Atlantic do not have a clue as to what they are doing and probably never will as they are always playing catchup to the market manipulators.
The bursting of the bubble after the pools of manipulated monies have taken their cash off the table has subsequently wiped out the value of the all stocks to bargain basement levels. However this now means that the unregulated hedge funds are at it again accumulating towards the NEXT mega STEALTH bull market. Why is it a stealth bull market ? Because everyone, and I MEAN literally everyone is CALLING THIS A BEAR MARKET RALLY TO AVOID BUYING INTO ! Everyone has given up. When in effect THIS IS HIGHLY PROBABLY THE MARKET BOTTOM !
Stealth Bull Market Targets
My original analysis called for an initial 30% rise from the bottom into year end 2009 , so far we have seen a 12% spike higher in one week, therefore despite the inevitable correction from an overbought state, the forward overall trend will continue to maintain an UPWARD BIAS, off course 30% was a best guesstimate made BEFORE the market bottomed, so we may see a substantially higher year end level which will become much clearer once we witness the quality of corrections against the trend and how the market copes with inevitably much worse economic news. To get the latest state of the Stealth Bull Market – Make sure to subscribe to my free newsletter. Most investors memory is at this moment in time fixated on drawing upon the experiences of last October and November’s volatile price action, where 10% rallies soon evaporated into fresh bear market lows, which is exactly the kind of mind set necessary for a STEALTH Bull Market, which allows the STEALTH BULL market to stealthy continuing rallying whilst only the manipulators and smart investors accumulate.
Yes I am aware of the on-going corporate earnings contraction forecasts that SUGGEST stocks should be going MUCH lower, though some of the estimates of where the market should be heading to are pretty ridiculous, were talking ridiculous price levels of as low as DJIA 400! However the stocks bull market was also elevated to Dow 14,000 on the basis of corporate EARNINGS forecasts that suggested that Stocks should go MUCH HIGHER. So what does that tell you ? It tells you that what you tend to read is always suggestive of the JUNCTURE being FAR AWAY, NOT imminent. IT IS ONLY LONG AFTER THE FACT, AFTER MARKET’S HAVE ALREADY MOVED THAT THE JUNCTURE IS RECOGNISED AND ANALYSIS PRESENTED AS TO WHAT WENT WRONG WITH THE SCENERIO THAT CALLED FOR MUCH LOWER PRICES.
Similarly wide spread consensus today exists for SHARPLY LOWER CORPORATE EARNINGS going into 2010 THAT MUST MEAN MUCH LOWER STOCK PRICES. However this earnings analysis that is so abundant today, should have been presented OVER A YEAR AGO ! in October 2007 I.e. at or near the market peak! So that ordinary investors could actually ACT on the information. NOT NOW AT THE MARKET BOTTOM ! We are again seeing REASONS as to WHY INVESTORS should avoid investing INTO the Stealth Bull market!, precisely as we all witnessed what was effectively Bullish propaganda during the final stages of the Stocks Bull Market, so we are NOW witnessing what is effectively BEARISH propaganda in the final stages of the Bear Market. Now, don’t get me wrong, I am not saying that the analysis is not genuine, what I am saying is that IT IS IRRELEVANT! As it is always much easier to build a scenario in favour of a trend that has been in force for sometime that has generated much data and analysis in support of why it exists and therefore it should continue for much longer, then to “Think Out side of the Box” to disregard bearish data that has been magnified by the growing consensus that really should have been known more than a year earlier in favour of the technical picture that as the analysis of October 2008 stated, that a. we are NOT heading for a Great Depression (as I will further elaborate upon in the Q&A below) and b. The stocks bear market HAS fulfilled its bear market objectives in terms of price and time, more than anyone could have been imagined a year ago!
But now, even after the stock price wipeout to below Dow 6,600. The analytical weight bearing down of overwhelming information is that in support of a continuing meltdown for even as long as several more years towards Dow targets such as 4,000 or even as low as 400 by what can only be termed as perma-bear psychology. Remember Dow 14,000, NO ONE PAID ATTENTION to the perma-bears at that time. As the market was firmly in grip of the perma-bull psychology which was eyeing Goldilocks levels of 18,000. There were even calls that China ‘s SSE at 6,000 should go much higher, despite being on a P/E of about 60. The uber bullish media played on the fact that the NASDAQ peaked on a P/E north of 100, so much for the earnings factor! In fact I pointed out in November 2007 that investors should get out of china AT SSE 6,000 and to forget SSE 9,000, its going straight down towards an initial target of 4,000. Instead today earnings is brought to the fore to support a further collapse of stock prices to what is commonly referred to as reversion to below the mean, AS AN EXCUSE TO FALL FOR THE TRAP OF PERPETUATING A DISTANT JUNCTURE BOTH IN TERMS OF PRICE AND TIME. Therefore repeating the same mistakes that occur at ALL market Junctures ! Which is DATA is PUT AHEAD of PRICE ! To which my answer is this – What are you trading ? Are you trading the Corporate Earnings Data or the actual Stock Index ?
The only thing that actually matters is the PRICE ! NOTHING ELSE! and I mean NOTHING ! Not earnings, Not fundamentals. Listen to the PRICE or you WILL miss the Stealth Bull Market!
Down Side Risks
Off course there is a downside risk to the new fledgling bull market, as I warned of in February 2009 that their exists the chance of a overshoot to the downside towards a target of 5,700 to 6000, forecasting is a measure of probabilities where you watch to see of if the market shows strength or weakness against the original forecast which is the primary purpose of the forecast. However, as I pointed out last weekend at Dow 6626, this secondary target is an overshoot to the existing target which has been fulfilled, and therefore the expectations were for a bullish spike higher that would give the necessary buy triggers. The buy triggers and bullish spike higher OCCURED during the subsequent week which CONFIRMED the market bottom. Now what the stealth bull market needs to do is put an even greater distance between itself and the market low to further reinforce the market bottom. Therefore the strategy is of accumulating on reinforcing buy triggers, whilst liquidating on non confirming bearish triggers that reinforce the secondary target. I am afraid there is no crystal ball, therefore one needs to rely on re-acting to the actual price movements as manifested by the buy and sell price triggers and price trend against the forecast scenerio. At this point in time the market is strongly confirming the bear market low. However the short-term overbought state does necessitate corrective action towards the support zone illustrated above to provide for a healthy stealthy bull market.
In Summary – We have in all probability seen THE stocks bear market bottom at 6470, which is evident in the fact that few are taking the current rally seriously instead viewing it as an opportunity to SELL INTO , Which is exactly what the market manipulators and smart money desires. They do not want the small investors carrying heavy losses of the past 18 months to accumulate here, No they want the not so smart money to SELL into the rally so that more can accumulated at near rock bottom prices! Therefore watch for much more continuous commentary of HOW this is BEAR MARKET RALLY THAT IS TO BE SOLD INTO as the Stealth Bull Market gathers steam.
By Nadeem Walayat